Approximately one month ago, Bill Simmons went from played-out name-dropping former everyman to a martyr of sorts, as the Grantland boss was suspended by ESPN for three weeks for challenging the media behemoth to punish him for criticizing Roger Goodell. Promising to speak out if such action was taken, the Sports Guy...followed the terms of his ban and fell off the grid save for a few photos of a family vacation. Last week's lack of a Friday article despite Simmons' reinstatement on Wednesday even led to conspiracy theories that Bill was intentionally passing on writing about the NFL out of protest, which would have actually been somewhat of an interesting development. Of course, despite all of his protestations, we know that Simmons is never one to actually deliver on big talk, as his picks column returned this week.
. Did the supposed everyman's wealth allow him to enjoy a luxurious time away from actually working? Yep. Has Simmons once again claimed to have cracked the code for gambling? Maybe. Are his takes too hot to handle? He definitely thinks so! Let's delve into this nonsense, shall we?
Off to a roaring start. Washington fans STILL think that Kirk Cousins is superior to Robert Griffin III, even after the former was just benched for poor concussed Colt McCoy. It's cute that E.J. Manuel and Percy Harvin are referenced by name, though, as I'm pretty sure that fans in Buffalo and Seattle expected their clubs' dominant defenses to carry the day.
Second, my long-dormant golf game improved dramatically. I hadn’t played more than five rounds total in the past 20 years; two weeks ago, I shot a 94 from the blues. At this rate, I will be playing the Masters by next April.
Third, you know what’s really fun about not working? Not working! Being a lazy-ass is just incredible. I loved it so much. Wait, you want to play golf with me for the third time in three days? SURE! What time?
Oh, are you not rich enough to go golfing with famous buddies during what should be suspension? Nothing makes the "Boston Sports Guy" persona any funnier than when Bill throws his wealth in people's faces.
And fourth, I rededicated myself to understanding football gambling better.
Not enough to write a picks column last week, though.
What if there were a better way to figure out NFL records than just wins and losses? For instance, Arizona battled back in Week 1 to beat San Diego 18-17 on Monday night — the Cardinals got the “win” and San Diego got the “loss,” but really, that was an “either/or” game, right? For gambling purposes, there had to be a better way to capture that.
For those following along at home, this approximately the 56th occasion in which Simmons has claimed to have cracked some magical code for betting on football. Just like all of the others, I'm sure that it's flawless.
I went through the first few weeks of games and redid everyone’s records, tagging each game as either a legitimate win or loss, an ass-kicking win or loss, or an either/or game. And if anything else happened in that game with gambling repercussions — a comeback win, a blown lead, major dysfunction, whatever — I tagged that, too. And again, I did this because I had an incredible amount of time on my hands.
So Buffalo might be 4-3 in real life, but its revised record would be 1-2-4 — one legit win, two legit losses and four either/or games.
I'm going to spare you the tables that were inserted to fill column space, but needless to say there is nothing profound that can be gleaned from any of this. Vegas already factors in team quality and caliber of wins/losses into lines, which is why Arizona is still not massive favorites every week despite being one of only four one-loss teams or the fact that said Bills team isn't in fact being treated like a juggernaut. Humorously, Buffalo's 4-3 mark despite a lower arbitrary valuation of their results and status as a road favorite are supposed to be signs that they should totally be picked against this week - a point that Simmons immediately undercuts by noting that this week's line is due almost solely to the Jets being a dysfunctional mess.
Look at it from every angle and it’s hard not to come to this conclusion: The 2014 Colts are REALLY good. Oh, and I haven’t even mentioned the most important point: You don’t want to face Andrew Luck in a big game, under any circumstances. He’s been dynamite. Quarterbacks usually make four leaps …
Leap 1: “I’m definitely a playoff QB.”
Leap 2: “I’m definitely a franchise QB.”
Leap 3: “I can win a Super Bowl for you.”
Leap 4: “I AM A BEAST! YOU WILL FUCKING FEAR ME!!!!!!”
I can’t tell if Luck is making Leap 3 in 2014, or if he just decided to combine Leap 3 and Leap 4 into one mega-leap. But SOMETHING is happening here. Because I can tell you this much: As a Patriots fan, I want no part of Andrew The Giant in the playoffs. None. Zero. Nada.
But if Luck is making a combination of Leap 2 and Leap 3, Indy might not be as super-dominant against he has been against the mediocre slew of opponents that the team has faced over the last few weeks. However, should he skip to Leap 5, "I am from a different plane of existence and will consume your universe," the Colts might be a tough out. Also, Luck singlehandedly blew Indianapolis' Week 2 contest vs. Philly, but let's ignore that since he just played well against the crippled Bengals!
OK, let’s do a quick 2014 power ranking, in reverse order, using everyone’s revised records (legit wins, legit losses, either/or games).
Include BPI or it doesn't count.
Take it from a Pats fan who rooted for the likes of Hugh Millen, Matt Cavanaugh and Traumatized By Super Bowl XX Tony Eason — there’s nothing worse than being stuck with a subpar-or-worse QB. It’s the same feeling as the few hours after losing your wallet, but every Sunday for four straight months. Short-term, couldn’t these teams just make a four-way Geno/Cousins/Locker/Fitzpatrick trade just to mix it up?
Bill spent so much time studying the NFL and preparing this column that he apparently missed the fact that neither Cousins nor Locker is a starter anymore. Acquiring Jake Locker would be a very LOLJets thing to do, although they are probably waiting for Sam Bradford to come on the market first.
THE ROAD TO MEDIOCRITY
23. ST. LOUIS RAMS (0-3-3)
22. CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-3-3)
21. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-3-1)
20. NEW YORK GIANTS (3-4-0)
19. CHICAGO BEARS (2-2-3)
I don’t believe in any of these teams,
Strong take.
with one exception:
Peter King, is that you?
You can’t rule out the Bears getting out of their own way and ripping off some wins. They have two Vikings games, a Bucs game and home games against Dallas, New Orleans and Detroit left … and I hate to say it, but they scare the shit out of me in New England this weekend. (Wait, you just smelled out my elaborate jinx? Crap, I’m rusty.)
Can't you say this about any of these teams save maybe the Rams? The Giants and Panthers each play in divisions where defense is totally optional, while the Steelers' results couldn't be more mercurial, even within individual games. Also, joking or not, claiming to be scared of a team with no offensive line and its entire defense on the injured list should've been a gag killed well before submission.
18. BUFFALO BILLS (1-2-4)
17. CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-1-4)
Just a whiff. Not quite a strong odor. For the record, they play each other in Week 13. And for the record, Mike Lombardi signed Brian Hoyer and traded Trent Richardson’s carcass for a first-rounder well before anyone realized Trent Richardson was a carcass … and yes, he absolutely would have kept that no. 4 overall pick and drafted Sammy Watkins last May. Whatever.
Hahahahaha, I guess we know one of the folks with whom Simmons was golfing. Mike Lombardi, mind you you, got fired from both the Raiders and the Browns, and hired THE Rob Chudzinski to be Cleveland's head coach last year. But, no, I'm totally sure that he would have suddenly become competent if not deservedly fired.
SMOKE AND MIRRORS
13. DETROIT LIONS (4-1-2)
12. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-1-3)
Two flawed playoff teams with the same fundamental problem — if Megatron or Gronk isn’t 90-100 percent in January, they have no chance. Cross them off. Without Gronk, New England’s offense is a bunch of .280 hitters with .740 OPSes; and it might not matter, anyway, after the Mayo/Ridley/Jones injuries. And the Lions have more weapons, but would you rather have Matt Stafford and Jim Caldwell … or Brady and Belichick? Come on.
Forced baseball analogies are forced. Only 53 qualified hitters batted at least .280 this season, BTW, not like that or OPS really matters. Nice false choice at the end, too. Apparently we are forced to pick between these two teams since Simmons paired together, completely ignoring the fact that they are in separate conferences and have very little to do with the other.
THE YEAR-AFTERERS
11. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (2-2-2)
Just a textbook Super Bowl hangover season. I’m officially in “Are we sure they’re good?” mode with them. (You’ll see where I settled later in the column.) By the way, Pete Carroll turned out to be a terrific peacetime president … but you don’t want him as your wartime president. Every Patriots fan knew this already. Myself included.
Holy crap. I wonder how long Bill has been waiting to write something like this about the guy he once dubbed "Coach Fredo." I'm no Pete Carroll fan (and that's before getting into the whole 9/11 truther aspect of his personality), but it's pretty obvious that the guy learned a lot from his initial experiences as an NFL head coach. However, now that Seattle has lost a few games, suddenly we can take some potshots! The "wartime/peacetime" angle makes no sense to begin with given that the Seahawks had to fight off a dangerous Niners team for both the NFC West and conference titles last year despite a myriad of their top defensive players' statuses in constant limbo due to suspensions for PED usage. The fact that Percy Harvin forced his way out of town by being a malcontent is suddenly a character flaw for Carroll? Um, no. Thanks for playing, though. I wish that the second-to-last line read "true Patriots fan," though. True Simmons bashers know what I mean.
8. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-0-4)
7. ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-1-1)
Similar teams in this respect: superb coaching staffs that spent time “creating a culture,” playmakers on offense, overachievers on defense, good home crowds, helmets with birds … and I don’t even remotely trust their QBs. Ironically, they’re playing each other on Sunday! (Was that the right use of “ironically?” I botch that word 75 percent of the time.)
Editor’s note: No.
I like this editor fellow.
THE CONTENDERS
6. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-1-3)
5. GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-2-2)
4. BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-1-2)
3. DALLAS COWBOYS (4-1-2)
San Diego might be ranked too high, but I like those guys and they’re undeniably banged up right now. Even last night in Denver, they were in that game until they got jobbed by putrid officiating.
Also, Peyton Manning and Ronnie Hillman shredding their defense, plus Philip Rivers throwing two horrible interceptions. But, no, it was totally the refs. Keep blaming others whenever one of your preseason favorites loses, Bill. How are the Bucs doing?
THE SLEEPING GIANT
2. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-1-1)
Week 11, home for Brady and the Pats — that’s when we’ll know with these guys one way or the other. I am a believer.
Nothing says "sleeper" like a team on a five-game win streak whose wins have been widely noticed. Also, Indy beat the #4 team on Simmons' arbitrary list, but can't be declared legit unless they beat a Patriots team that he repeatedly bagged on for being flawed and injured. No, that sounds reasonable...
THE FAVORITE
1. DENVER BRONCOS (5-0-2)
Shaping up to be a historically great juggernaut, as our friend Aaron Schatz broke down even before last night’s San Diego win. I see them finishing 14-2 overall — they’ll lose in San Diego or Kansas City, but that’s it. And if Manning can’t win the Super Bowl with THIS team, then I don’t know what to tell you.
I'm pretty sure that I know what you'll tell us and it involves Peyton not being as good as Tom Brady.
One more thing: Before we get to the Week 8 picks, I wanted to clear up my 2014 record against the spread. After three weeks, I was sitting at 25-23 … and then I didn’t make picks in this space for four weeks. So what’s my real record?
Well, if Roger Goodell can claim that Ray Rice deceived him on June 16, or that Goodell didn’t know what was on that second elevator tape, then I’m claiming that I went 58-0 against the spread from Week 4 through Week 7.
OMG, so much hot fire! Don't hold back like you did over your suspension period, Bill! Remember when Simmons criticized Goodell just as vociferously for his follies with another scandal involving a video tape. Yeah, neither do I.
BRONCOS (-7.5) over Chargers
I swear on the lives of both of my dogs, I picked the Broncos in this one.
Even if Simmons is lying, we'd get a column about the dogs longer than anything he'll write about a non-NBA topic between late November and May, so there's that.
Come on. Let’s run some mean Manning emails to make me feel better about where this Broncos season is going.
No way that this won't be an exercise in hackery.
Q: I’ll get right to the point …
Regular season: 98-49, 2.48 ERA
Postseason: 1-4, 5.20 ERA
Is Clayton Kershaw the actual little brother Peyton Manning should have had?
—Billy Bahnsen, Fresh Meadows, NY
BS: (Biting my tongue.)
Just say Clayton Manning or Peyton Kershaw like everyone else did two weeks ago, pal. Old jokes are old.
Q: While you were on vacation, the Dodgers were eliminated from the playoffs and Clayton Kershaw became the Peyton Manning of Baseball. Other sports: Karl Malone (basketball), Joe Thornton (hockey), Lee Westwood (golf), Andy Murray (tennis), Leo DiCaprio (acting). Who am I missing?
—Dave Cellucci, Melrose, MA
Simmons countered with a photo of Alex Rodriguez kissing a mirror, which was a positive laugh riot. I'm trying to figure out where the hell either of these are going with these examples, though. Yes, Malone, Thornton, and Westie did not win/have not won a title/major (and the DiCaprio tack-on guaranteed that this terrible email would be published), but both Manning and Rodriguez have been key parts of championship teams, while Murray now has two Grand Slam titles and an Olympic gold. These are his lazy readers!
Q: I just dropped Brady from my fantasy team. Didn’t even bother trying to trade him. Yep. That’s where we are.
—Brian K, Eugene, OR
BS: Brady landed on the waiver wire for my East Coast fantasy league for like 36 hours. It was incredible.
This league almost certainly has a massive buy-in and someone waived Tom Brady. These are Bill's stupid friends!
Absolutely, unequivocally, the rock-bottom moment of the entire Brady-Belichick era.(Thinking.) Wait, that’s not true. We lost a Super Bowl because the Giants’ fifth-string receiver caught a third down pass off his helmet. I forgot.
I blame Tom Brady shaking Pat O'Brien's hand!
Q: Billy Boy! A recent douche sighting caught this man on camera. Apparently he is so ashamed of being 20th or lower in yards/game, completion percentage, and yards/attempt that he has taken a public disguise. (My, those curls!) Appearing as a mix between a Colombian drug dealer, an FBI informant, and a barbershop quartet singer is a new stat on the douche rankings. But hey, Tom Brady keeps breaking barriers, and that’s why he’s the 2014 Douchebag Champion!
—Eric, NYC
Simmons included a photo of Brady in some foolish get-up since he, like way too many of his fellow mouthbreathing Bahston brethren secretly hate that the guy who turned their once-moribund franchise into a dynasty isn't a Johnny Unitas clone. No one denies this!
BS: Remember, the 2014 Pats are 2-0 when we run a mean Brady-related email from Eric in NYC!
#TERNDZ! This will probably go into the next awful gambling manifesto.
Lions (-4.5) over FALCONS
London, 9:30 a.m. ET, 6:30 a.m. PT … that’s right, it’s the dumbest sporting event of the year! Plus, we kept our streak alive of sending England the crappiest NFL games possible. I’m waking up early and watching this only because I hate myself. That reminds me …
West Coast Douche Simmons Alert! You know that if Bill still lived in Boston, though, he'd be absolutely thrilled that he could wake up to football, no matter how crappy the matchup (and this game really isn't that awful). Self-awareness is hard.
Rams (+7.5) over CHIEFS
Game 5 of the World Series is that night. In other words, this will either be …
A. One of the greatest days in Kansas City sports history
B. One of the worst days in Kansas City sports history
… with no in-between.
How is there no room for nuance? Seriously, even though Simmons didn't know the result of Game 3, odds were slim that the Royals would be eliminated, while a split of these two games wouldn't be disastrous.
I’m leaning toward “one of the worst.” Hope I’m wrong. Sincerely, The Guy Who Has The Royals At 18-1 To Win The World Series right now.
#humblebrag and a pathetic "reverse jinx" all wrapped into one. Now I want the Giants to win all the more.
Seahawks (-6) over PANTHERS
Just a ridiculous line. The Seahawks haven’t looked good since Week 1; they’ve been outscored 125-123 in the past six weeks. They just endured consecutive weeks of insane news cycles — first, the Percy Harvin trade followed by the Lucchino/Werner/Henry-esque smear campaign of Harvin on his way out the door, followed by this week’s super-insane “report” (I use the word loosely) of Seahawks players allegedly bitching behind closed doors that Russell Wilson isn’t black enough. And yet … they were saddled with a brutal early schedule, got Kitchen Sinked by St. Louis last weekend (seriously, the Rams did everything short of trying a Fumblerooski) and have a sweet Panthers/Raiders/Giants stretch coming up. I can’t give up on the 2014 Hawks yet.
No one better to criticize Vegas' lines than a guy who can't turn a profit betting against the spread. Nice to see St. Louis' win reduced to "they only won because they ran trick plays!" - ones that the Seahawks couldn't stop, mind you. Also, remember earlier in the column when Simmons noted that Seattle has been brutal on the road and can't be trusted? Neither does he.
BS: Thanks for setting up our Shakey’s Pizza Watch for Week 8: the Marc Trestman Era, the Ken Whisenhunt Era, the Mike Smith Era, EJ Manuel’s mental conditioning coach, the Andy Dalton Era, Seattle’s special teams, Carolina’s front seven, the Browns/Chargers/Vikings/Niners O-lines, Buffalo’s secondary, every Jerome Boger Game, anyone who trades with Bill Belichick, Green Bay’s run D, any Detroit kicker, all “Jason Garrett Will Be The First Coach Fired” bets (R.I.P.), the Reggie McKenzie Era, New England’s banged-up defense, any under-oath testimony from any sports commissioner.
A pointless Katy Perry question set up this mess, which somehow includes five "Eras." I can't agree with the bashing of Referee Jerome, though, as he brings the best of Perd Hapley and Harold Reynolds to the mic every week.
Q: Is anyone going to cover the Ravens’ response to the OTL report? It was a serious accusation, their response made NO SENSE, and NOBODY has said a word about it.
—Ava, Santa Clara
BS: Nah … people are tired of the Ray Rice story.
Name one. Oh, you just did, yet pluralized it. What followed was a long, rambling mess that continued to claim that people don't care about all of the things that were huge news when they broke, which is basically the same argument used folks claim that Washington's racist nickname was never a big deal until now (ignoring historical evidence to the contrary). If one were to follow the this line of "logic," in order to "care" about something we'd have to be consumed by it 24/7 to the point of having no life at all. So, basically, #GamerGate clowns are the one people who truly care nowadays. Don't you feel foolish now, Chris Kluwe!
(Will we care in two weeks, when Goodell testifies under oath … and we find out if he violated the CBA by re-suspending someone for no real reason, or why the NFL seemingly tried to filibuster this story away? I hope so.)
Taking on Goodell would have a lot more teeth if Simmons stopped tiptoeing around making another real statement, but we know that's not happening unless he officially decides to leave ESPN when his deal expires.
Q: Could Goodell’s cameo in Draft Day become the highlight of his tenure? I mean, he actually gets cheered as he walks onto the draft stage (the most unrealistic moment in a movie LOADED with unrealistic moments, as you laid out in your column). I can just picture Goodell, after he gets inevitably canned, sitting in front of a big screen TV watching and rewinding himself walking onto the stage to cheers in the movie with a blank look on his face like he doesn’t understand what went wrong.
—Chris, Kansas City
BS: There’s no way Goodell saw that movie — it was barely in the theaters and went straight to video, which means they sent him the video and he never got it. (Sorry, I had to.)
See what I mean? I'm fairly certain the Goodell would've destroyed his copy of Draft Day, anyway. (Sorry, I had to. Well, not really.)
CARDS (-1.5) over Eagles
Here’s your “NOBODY BELIEVES IN US!” line of the 2014 season. I’ll let Dave explain …
Sponsored by the guy who claimed a Week 2 game between the Bills and Dolphins was a "Nobody believes in us!" contest. This should be stellar.
Q: The Cardinals were almost unanimously picked third or fourth in their division.
Because they are in the same division as last year's two conference finalists and the last two teams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, neither of which got markedly worse in the offseason?
Four of their top six defensive players got hurt/suspended. Palmer is their QB. Their players have little to no fantasy value except for Ellington. But these guys just keep winning games.
They've won five games by a total of 42 points, with the only legit victories (SD and SF) coming at home. This smells of smoke and mirrors.
Do you realize their one loss was at Denver, where they trailed by only four points in the fourth in the midst of LOGAN THOMAS playing the entire second half and completing one of his eight passes?
A game that they would lose by 21 because Logan Thomas sucks and the Cards have proven nothing on the road?
Or that they have hands down the most underrated home field advantage in the NFL?
Most underrated neutral field? Wichita!
Seriously, does anyone ever talk about “the nest”? One of the loudest buildings in the NFL and the Cardinals are only 9-2 there since the beginning of 2013!
And they are 5-4 on the road in that span. Decent, but hardly indicative of a truly excellent team like this randomly annoyed fan seems to think they are.
So did you settle on the Cardinals as this year’s “nobody believes in us” team yet?
—Dave M, Salt Lake City
My pick is Oakland, because I don't believe in them at all.
Q: We could be one week away from the 6-1 Arizona Cardinals hosting the 7-1 Dallas Cowboys with the inside track to home field advantage in the NFC in the balance. Is it time to just admit that we are all Jon Snow now? Because it should be obvious that we know nothing.
—Kevin, Long Beach CA
BS: To be fair, I’ve known that about myself for years and years. But I know this much: I love laying less than two in this Cardinals game.
Says the guy who thinks oddmakers are idiots and still believes that he can devise a system to beat Vegas.
Before we go, I wanted to run two more reader emails because I thought both were important for different reasons, and they also reflected the general sentiments of hundreds and hundreds of readers over these past few weeks. Thanks to everyone who wrote in, whether it was to speak their mind, check in, say a couple of nice words or whatever. It helped a lot. Seriously. Thank you. Anyway …
There isn't much worth printing from these two notes, save for the first of the pair doing what Simmons did not when he went into Goodell-bashing mode a month ago. Like a typical fan, Bill placed all of the blame for the Ray Rice debacle and other league woes on the commissioner. While he was correct in noting that Goodell has to be morally bankrupt to greenlight a slap on the wrist for a player who knocked out and dragged his fiancee, someone who has such access to both ESPN and the NBA should have known that the commissioner merely serves the owners. Yes, ditching a scumbag like Goodell would be a fine development, but he'd just as quickly be replaced with another lackey. It's the owners who deserve to have their feet held to the fire for allowing a culture of misogyny, homophobia, et al to fester and the owners who deserve to have money taken out of their pockets. Instead, any time we scapegoat one individual and go back to blindly following the sport, no matter how awfully it is run, we contribute to the perpetuation of the status quo. Naturally, it took a reader to make that point, not the guy raking in millions for his "work" - just like Peter King!
Thanks for writing in. See you next week.
Oh, geez, I hope not.